New Trends in Energy Demand Modelling
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New societal trends like circular and shared economy can have a large impact on energy consumption and lead to cross-sectoral demand shifts that go beyond extrapolation of presently observed trends. It is expected that these trends are likely to speed up when they are embraced by larger parts of the society. Due to their significant impact, they are already included in the EU climate scenarios. However, much more progress is necessary to enhance their empirical basis and their representation in energy models.
The novelty of this project arises from three perspectives:
- Thematic perspective: identifying and quantifying how new societal trends affect energy demand, using trend-evolution pathways.
- Methodological perspective: combining qualitative foresight methods with quantitative cross-sectoral modelling and exploring how energy demand models are to be improved.
- Data perspective: enhancing the empirical basis for modelling the impact of new societal trends using new data sources and empirical data.
Several well-established models build the core of this project, one of which (FORECAST Tertiary) is run by TEP Energy. It is used to analyse the impact of the new societal trends like digitalisation, and shared economy in the services sector. Cross-sectoral as well as cross-country specific aspects are in the scope of this work.
Project infos
Project duration2020 - 2023
Contact at TEP EnergyMartin Jakob und Michael Steck
Contracting partyEASME (EU commission)
Project partnersFrauenhofer ISI, E3-Modelling IKE, TU Wien, POLIMI, RIC, WiseEuropa, E-Think
NewTrends Projectwebsitenewtrends2020.eu
Reference projects
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IEA ECB Annex 70: Analysis of Building Energy Data with a Scalable Building Stock Model
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Together with Prognos and Infras, we periodically carry out ex-post analyses of the energy demand in Switzerland on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE). TEP Energy is responsible for the sectors services and agriculture.
PUEDA+: Promotion of energy efficiency in data centers and server rooms
Program to promote energy efficiency in the Swiss IT industry
From the Certificate to Physics
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CoolCity
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EEG Workshop: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energies in Buildings (EEG)
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Study on the Subsidiary Ban of Fossil-Fuelled Heating Systems
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Mapping and Analyses of the Current and Future (2020-2030) Heating/Cooling Fuel Deployment (Fossil Fuels/Renewables) in Europe
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Extension of the Building Stock Model for the SIA Efficiency Path
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Energy Supply Concept 2050 for the City of Zurich
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Potential Assessment of Measures in the Field of Building Technology
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